Education Stalls, Jobs Vanish, and Ethiopia’s Youth Face an Uncertain Future

Education, health, and work-family dynamics are key determinants of a young person’s well-being, shaping both individual opportunities and national development. Nowhere is this more critical than in Ethiopia, where a growing youth population faces systemic challenges that threaten long-term progress.

For more than two decades, Young Lives Ethiopia has tracked the lives of 3,000 children, offering valuable insights into the realities they face. Last week, the organization released three fact sheets based on its 2023/24 Round Seven Survey, conducted in 20 sites across Addis Ababa, Amhara, Oromia, Sidama, Tigray, and the Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR).

The study follows two cohorts: 2,000 children born in 2001/02 and 1,000 born in 1994/95, examining their experiences in education, health, and work-family dynamics. The findings reveal stark inequalities and raise concerns over Ethiopia’s ability to meet its Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Education and Learning: Gains and Setbacks

Preliminary data show stagnant primary and lower secondary school completion rates across generations. While upper secondary completion has improved, tertiary enrollment and graduation rates have declined.

The study links these setbacks to school closures, conflict, and early-life inequalities that slow educational progress. Although internet usage has increased, access to computers remains unchanged, and improved grade progression has not translated into stronger reading skills.

Despite some gains, Ethiopia remains far from meeting its educational targets.

The fact sheet notes that while 37 percent of 22-year-olds completed lower secondary school on time in 2023—a faster rate than previous generations—the overall picture remains mixed.

Between 2016 and 2023, the share of 22-year-olds completing upper secondary education rose from 19 percent to 26 percent, with women outperforming men. Yet, the transition to secondary school remains difficult, with only one-third of 15–18-year-olds enrolled in 2023.

The government introduced a new education roadmap in 2021 to address these challenges. While primary school enrollment (Grades 1–6) nears universal coverage, middle school enrollment remains low at 46.6 percent (2023), and the primary school completion rate fell short of its 71 percent target, standing at just 61 percent.

Crisis and Disruptions

A combination of armed conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic, economic hardship, and environmental disasters has further disrupted learning. School closures—especially in conflict-affected regions—have pushed vulnerable students out of formal education.

Between 2019 and 2021, enrollment for Grades 1–8 dropped from 95 percent to 86 percent, reflecting the lasting impact of these disruptions. Meanwhile, only 3.2 percent of students scored above 50 percent on the national Ethiopian Higher Education Entrance Certificate Examination (2021–2023).

Young Lives surveyed more than 2,000 individuals between October 2023 and April 2024, including those in conflict-hit regions. The findings show 75 percent of 22-year-olds completed primary school, and more than half finished Grade 10—with women consistently outperforming men.

Health and Well-Being

Preliminary findings from the survey, conducted across seven Ethiopian regions, indicate a decline in underweight prevalence among 22-year-olds. However, despite this improvement, malnutrition and food insecurity remain widespread. The study highlights that food insecurity has persisted in Young Lives households for over a decade, with seven in ten families experiencing at least mild food insecurity in 2023. While there was a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, early-life inequalities in nutrition have become more pronounced over the past 20 years. Nearly one in four participants was underweight at age 22, underscoring the ongoing struggle against malnutrition.

Mental health has also emerged as a critical concern. While the survey notes an improvement in subjective well-being among the younger cohort since childhood, it reports a rise in stress and anxiety, particularly following the pandemic. One in five participants exhibited symptoms consistent with anxiety or depression, with those from conflict-affected regions experiencing severe mental health distress, including post-traumatic stress disorder.

Work and family: A widening employment gap

The survey paints a troubling picture of youth employment in Ethiopia, revealing that 16 percent of 22-year-olds were neither employed, in school, nor enrolled in any training program—more than double the seven percent recorded among the older cohort at the same age in 2016. Among those engaged in work or education, 51 percent were employed full-time, 14 percent combined work and study, and 18 percent were exclusively studying.

However, the quality of employment remains a significant issue. The study found that 90 percent of employed participants worked without a formal contract, and two in five worked more than 48 hours per week. While employment rates were highest among young people in Tigray, where 64 percent reported being employed, only three percent had formal written contracts.

The report also underscores a persistent gender gap in employment. By age 22, men were more likely to be employed and, on average, spent an additional hour per day in paid work compared to women. Meanwhile, young women dedicated over three more hours daily to unpaid care work and were more likely than men to be married or have children at the same age.

Structural Barriers and Policy Implications

The study attributes disparities in employment, marriage, and fertility outcomes to structural barriers and limited access to formal job opportunities, particularly for women and those in the informal sector. At the launch event, Young Lives Ethiopia Country Director Alula Pankhurst (PhD), emphasized the resilience of young people despite adversity. He noted the negative impact of conflict on youth transitions into adulthood and stressed the need for targeted policies to address gender inequalities.

“The findings show progress in reducing early marriage and improving girls’ education,” he said. “But the gender gap in employment remains, with young women spending three more hours than men on unpaid care work. More policy efforts are needed to close this gap.”

While Young Lives does not directly engage in policymaking, Pankhurst noted that its research serves as a catalyst for change, informing government strategies and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) targets. “We have tracked these young people since birth,” he told The Reporter. “While our earlier studies showed progress in education, health, and employment, the combined effects of COVID-19, conflict, inflation, and rising unemployment have reversed many of those gains.”

Young Lives is an international longitudinal study tracking childhood poverty and development in Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam since 2002. The latest fact sheets mark the final findings of its 2024 survey, providing a comprehensive look at the long-term impact of economic and social challenges on youth.