On April 2, 2018, at just 41 years old, Abiy Ahmed Ali became the Prime Minister of Ethiopia, a country long defined by its intricate ethnic politics and authoritarian rule. His ascent marked a dramatic shift, one that seemed to promise a new era for the Horn of Africa’s second-most populous nation. Abiy’s arrival was heralded not only as a change of leadership but as the dawn of a new political and social order—an order based on unity, democratization, and, perhaps most surprisingly, peace. His early actions, such as releasing political prisoners, allowing greater press freedom, and pursuing an end to Ethiopia’s long-standing conflict with Eritrea, led to euphoria. He won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, cementing his status as an international beacon of hope.

Yet seven years later, that hope is entangled with profound disillusionment. Abiy’s tenure, once seen as transformative, has descended into a period marked by war, ethnic strife, and growing authoritarianism. The optimism that once defined his rise to power is now counterbalanced by accusations of militarized repression, civil war, and political consolidation that threatens the country’s democratic aspirations. Ethiopia’s future under Abiy Ahmed remains uncertain, as his leadership is defined by both extraordinary achievements and overwhelming failures.

Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power was shaped by the political convulsions that gripped Ethiopia in the mid-2010s. The Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the coalition that had ruled the country since 1991, found itself besieged by widespread protests. These protests were led largely by the Oromo and Amhara populations, who had long felt marginalized despite the country’s strong economic growth. Abiy, a former intelligence officer and the son of an Oromo Muslim father and a Christian mother, emerged as the surprise compromise candidate within the EPRDF leadership.

His assumption of power was marked by a palpable sense of hope. Abiy’s early reforms were unprecedented:

Abiy’s appointment of a gender-balanced cabinet was a symbol of inclusivity, while his creation of a Ministry of Peace reflected a commitment to national healing. But it was his bold peace deal with Eritrea in July 2018, ending a bitter 20-year border conflict, that propelled him onto the international stage. The agreement, and his subsequent receipt of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, positioned him as a peacemaker—a leader capable of ending one of Africa’s longest-standing conflicts. To many, Abiy represented a new Ethiopia, one free of the divisive politics that had long plagued the nation.

Yet even in the midst of this optimism, cracks were beginning to form. Abiy’s message of medemer, or “synergy,” promised unity across Ethiopia’s more than 80 ethnic groups, but it soon became clear that his vision for reconciliation would not be easily realized. In his push for national harmony, Abiy found himself navigating a landmine of ethnic tensions, historical grievances, and competing political agendas.

By November 2020, the euphoria surrounding Abiy’s leadership had begun to erode as he became embroiled in the conflict in Tigray. What started as a “law enforcement operation” against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—once the dominant faction within the ruling EPRDF coalition—spiraled into a brutal civil war. The conflict, now known as the Tigray War, drew in Eritrean forces and Amhara militias as allies of the federal government. The war quickly became catastrophic.

The human toll was staggering:

Abiy’s earlier image as a reformer and peacemaker was severely tarnished as reports of atrocities—massacres, ethnic cleansing, and forced displacement—surfaced. The involvement of Eritrean forces, notorious for their brutal tactics, led to widespread international condemnation. For many Ethiopians, the Tigray War marked a tragic turning point, as the very leader who had promised unity seemed to deepen the divisions in his country.

The war in Tigray was not an isolated incident. In the Oromia region, where Abiy hails from, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) launched a guerilla campaign, accusing Abiy of betraying Oromo interests by centralizing power and sidelining ethnic concerns. Meanwhile, in Amhara, dissatisfaction brewed after the Tigray conflict, especially over territorial disputes. Wolkait and Raya, contested areas in the north, became flashpoints for further unrest.

By early 2025, 4.4 million people had been displaced, and 21.4 million remained in need of humanitarian assistance. Ethiopia, under Abiy, was a nation fractured by war and deepening ethnic strife, a country increasingly defined by displacement and suffering.

Abiy inherited an economy that had been one of Africa’s fastest-growing. Under the previous government, Ethiopia had achieved impressive growth rates, averaging 10% annually for more than a decade. Yet Abiy’s transition from a state-led model to a more market-oriented economy has proven to be fraught with challenges.

His privatization agenda—which included the sale of state-owned giants like Ethiopian Airlines and Ethio Telecom—was designed to attract foreign investment and modernize the economy. Abiy’s government also boasted of turning Ethiopia into Africa’s “breadbasket,” claiming self-sufficiency in wheat by 2023.

However, Abiy’s economic reforms have been undermined by the conflicts that ravaged the country. The Tigray War alone is estimated to have cost billions, while Ethiopia’s currency has plunged, and inflation has skyrocketed. As Abiy pursued grand infrastructural projects—such as a $10 billion palace and a new science museum—critics accused him of prioritizing symbolic grandeur over addressing the immediate needs of his people.

The economic gap between ambition and reality is stark. Despite claims of progress, many Ethiopians face food insecurity, with war-torn regions like Tigray struggling to recover from the devastation. Abiy’s inability to stabilize the economy amid these crises has become a central point of contention in his leadership.

Abiy’s foreign policy trajectory mirrors his domestic one—transformative at first, but increasingly fraught with risk. His peace deal with Eritrea was a significant achievement, but relations with Eritrea deteriorated after 2022, as Abiy sought access to the Red Sea—a critical economic lifeline for landlocked Ethiopia. His ambition to break the nation’s dependence on Djibouti for trade led him to propose economic incentives for port access, including shares in the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Abiy’s rhetoric grew more expansionist. He spoke of merging Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia into a powerful regional bloc. But these aspirations raised concerns among neighboring countries, fueling fears of a revived imperial Ethiopia. As Eritrea mobilized its forces, and tensions mounted, Abiy’s aggressive posture further destabilized an already volatile region.

While Abiy’s initial reforms suggested a break with Ethiopia’s authoritarian past, his rule has increasingly been characterized by backsliding. By 2022, media censorship had returned, journalists and activists were detained, and internet shutdowns became common tools of control. Human rights organizations accused Abiy of using state violence to suppress dissent, particularly through Koree Nageenyaa, a secret service in Oromia responsible for alleged unlawful detentions and extrajudicial killings.

The 2021 election, which secured Abiy a second term, was marred by opposition boycotts and violence. Western governments, including the United States, decried the election as deeply flawed, citing the detention of opposition leaders like Jawar Mohammed. In recent months, reports have surfaced suggesting that Abiy plans to further consolidate power through a constitutional overhaul, shifting Ethiopia from a parliamentary system to a presidential one, potentially extending his rule until 2037.

Seven years after Abiy Ahmed assumed office, Ethiopia finds itself at a crossroads. A nation once filled with hope now grapples with the brutal consequences of war, economic mismanagement, and political repression. Abiy’s legacy is defined by a series of contradictions:

Abiy’s greatest challenge now lies in navigating the crises that have come to define his tenure. Will he manage to broker lasting peace in the Tigray, Oromia, and Amhara regions? Can he prioritize the immediate humanitarian needs of the Ethiopian people over his grander political and economic ambitions? And, crucially, will he restore the democratic promise that once made him Ethiopia’s beacon of hope?

As Ethiopia stands at this crossroads, its future depends on the answers to these questions. For Abiy, history will be the judge—and the judgment, for better or worse, is far from settled.