How political instability in Eritrea & the Horn threatens maritime trade, regional development

Eritrea, a small yet strategically vital nation on the shores of the Red Sea, stands today at the center of a growing regional crisis. For decades, our country has endured authoritarian rule under President Isaias Afwerki—a system marked by repression, militarization, and isolation from the international community. But the effects of this governance no longer stop at Eritrea’s borders. The political direction of Eritrea is now contributing to the destabilization of the broader Horn of Africa, threatening peace, trade, and regional cooperation.

As President of the Eritrean Seamen Union, I speak not only on behalf of those who work the waters of the Red Sea, but for all Eritreans who wish to see their country thrive in peace, dignity, and responsible leadership. The Red Sea is not just a geographical asset—it is Eritrea’s lifeline to global commerce and economic development. However, this corridor is being endangered by ongoing conflict, regional power struggles, and the absence of stable, cooperative governance.

Authoritarianism with regional consequences

The Isaias regime’s grip on power has led to severe human rights violations, lack of political freedoms, and an environment of fear and punishment. Political dissent is crushed, independent journalism is nonexistent, and religious institutions and minority groups are heavily persecuted. The regime’s reliance on indefinite military conscription has turned Eritrea’s youth into tools of state power, stripping them of education, opportunity, and hope.

These internal policies have created a humanitarian crisis that spills over national borders. Eritrea is now one of the leading sources of refugees in the region, with thousands fleeing each year into Sudan, Ethiopia, and beyond. This exodus places immense pressure on neighboring countries and adds to the instability of the Horn of Africa. It is not only a human tragedy—it is also a regional security threat.

A wasted strategic advantage

Eritrea’s geographic location should be a source of strength, cooperation, and prosperity. Positioned at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, our ports and coastline could serve as key hubs for trade, logistics, and regional development. Yet, under current leadership, these opportunities have been wasted. Instead of thriving port cities, we see militarized zones. Instead of international cooperation, we witness isolation and suspicion.

This has direct consequences for maritime trade, including fuel transport, goods delivery, and commercial shipping routes that connect Africa, Asia, and Europe. The Red Sea is now viewed by international observers as a corridor of growing risk, with instability in Eritrea, civil war in Sudan, and conflict in Yemen creating a volatile zone for global commerce.

Religious and ethnic persecution

Inside Eritrea, the regime’s crackdown on religious institutions and ethnic minorities has eroded the social fabric that once united our people. Only a handful of religious denominations are officially recognized, and followers of unregistered groups face imprisonment, harassment, and torture. Religious leaders have disappeared, churches have been closed, and citizens live in fear for practicing their faith.

This oppression deepens internal division and fuels cycles of mistrust and resistance. The regime uses ethnic and religious scapegoating to distract from its failures, creating a dangerous environment that could lead to broader sectarian conflict—not just within Eritrea, but across borders.

Economic collapse and human suffering

Eritrea’s economy is in crisis. Years of state control, lack of private sector development, and prioritization of military spending over public welfare have left the population in extreme poverty. Basic services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure are severely lacking. Food insecurity is widespread. Our skilled labor force—especially among youth and seafarers—is leaving the country in search of opportunity elsewhere.

This economic paralysis is not caused by sanctions or external enemies—it is the result of internal policies that prioritize control over progress. Eritrea’s potential is vast, but it has been systematically suffocated by a regime unwilling to open its hands to its own people or its neighbors.

Call for regional unity and international accountability

Despite the bleak picture, there is still hope—if action is taken. The international community must do more than issue statements. It must demand accountability, support civil society, and promote engagement with the Eritrean people—not just the regime. Eritrea is not a closed file—it is a living nation with citizens who deserve a future.

Neighboring countries, including Ethiopia, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia, must recognize that Eritrea’s stability is their stability. Regional dialogue, coordinated humanitarian efforts, and cross-border trade agreements can help build a new foundation for cooperation and peace. Maritime unions, port authorities, and African trade blocs must also work together to protect shipping corridors and seafarers’ rights across the Red Sea.

The Red Sea is a shared lifeline. If we allow it to become a zone of crisis, the consequences will be global. But if we work together—with mutual respect, sovereignty, and commitment to justice—it can become a corridor of prosperity for all.

As an Eritrean and as the President of the Eritrean Seamen Union, I believe in a better future for our nation and our region. That future will not come through repression or isolation. It will come through peace, dialogue, accountability, and investment in the dignity of our people. Eritrea belongs in the community of free nations—strong, proud, and at peace with its neighbors. The time to act is now.

(Paulo Antonio is the president of the Eritrean Seamen Union.)

Contributed by Paulo Antonio