Contesting the Politics of Statistics in Ethiopia













By Eyob Asfaw

On July 3, 2025, PM Abiy addressed the House of Peoples’ Representatives, where he shared his quantitative figures quite liberally. The question of what these figures mean—and what they do not—captivated my mind, as I want to make sense of them as a student of Development. It is not uncommon to build a consensus that numbers and quantitative presentations represent objective reality.

Although the figures and statistics went largely unnoticed in news headlines, PM Abiy’s address on numbers is no less contested than his positions on violence, inter-party, and regional politics. If someone were tasked with issuing a report card for PM Abiy, what passing mark would they give him, and how would they rate his performance in disclosing statistical data? This is a topic worth discussing. In this piece, I will highlight the contestability of government figures.

Recently, I sought advice from a professional working in one of the government ministries about the quality of data from government sources. Positioned to collect and aggregate data from different sectors, he expressed reservations about administrative data. He openly asked, “How can a university supervisor easily accept data from administrative bodies when its trustworthiness is in question, given that sometimes the data is inflated?”

In this context, the seminal work of the seasoned statistics professor Philip Hauser is instructive. He contended that, despite its potential to create pressure for policy and action, government-generated statistics often end up clouded by political smoke.

One dominant narrative holds that the government is the chief supplier of state-based statistics and that this offsets the politics surrounding them. In the domestic context, my notes from PM Abiy’s speech include claims such as the export of 37 tons of gold; 13 million tourists visiting Unity Park; Ethiopian Airlines acquiring 13 aircraft; and earning 8.3 billion USD from the service sector out of a total of 32 billion USD in foreign exchange. Meanwhile, his administration is facing an outstanding 300 billion birr trade imbalance, and 46,000 taxpayers reported a zero balance for tax exemption. Nonetheless, these and other undisclosed figures are, debatably, enough to gauge his administration’s performance—and PM Abiy’s report card might even be promoted to distinction.

As usual, PM Abiy offered a well-rehearsed response to criticism over the Ethiopian budget’s decline in USD terms. He provocatively said, “I commend you parliamentarians to measure growth neither in birr nor in forex, but in quintals of products.” This response makes some sense as a way to dilute the overemphasis on financial economics and the fixation on nominal macroeconomic indicators. From the vantage point of Economics 101, what matters most are aggregate outputs of land, resources, capital, labor, and entrepreneurship, rather than their nominal cash values.

PM Abiy also addressed tax compliance. Beyond the 37 percent of loyal taxpayers, he advised the rest to cultivate the habit of paying taxes instead of disguising income through the informal economy, engaging in tax evasion, or reporting zero or negative balances. His approach here is softer rather than harsh toward the non-compliant business community. Given that wage-earning and public employees are generally loyal taxpayers, one might expect him to react more bitterly, instead of merely encouraging business owners to “love their country.” Stronger regulation seems more important to ensure compliance.

On another point, he mentioned that 40 percent of tax is collected from public enterprises. What does that mean? Isn’t this growth counterproductive to the promise of the Homegrown Economic Reforms, which vow to make the private sector the frontline driver of economic growth? I think this requires further consideration by the top echelon of government to close the gap between economic policy and practice.

Regarding job creation, PM Abiy defended his administration’s claim of creating 4.5 million jobs per year. But isn’t that figure inflated for a country with annual labor-force growth of 2.5–3%? From the demand and supply sides of the labor market, one might ask: Where do the extra 2 million jobs come from? Is the government truly outperforming, given that the Afrobarometer 2024 Survey reported that 74% of Ethiopians are dissatisfied with the government’s job-creation efforts?

Setting aside my deeper analysis of the sectoral composition of employment for my dissertation, at this point I simply want to ask whether the Ministry of Labor and Skills misled him. I think these statistics deserve a second look by PM Abiy’s administration—or else, perhaps, double-counting of employment is on the rise. In reality, the unemployment rate can be considered normal if it stays around the global average of 5%. Scholars argue that unemployment can never be fully eliminated from an economy—just as inflation cannot.

In sum, I am reminded of what one of my professors used to say: “Listen to all sides of any contestation, think critically, but always aim for balance.” It is difficult to either accept without question or completely dismiss what PM Abiy addressed before parliament. However, counterbalancing government-released figures will always be essential for sustaining and ensuring inclusive economic growth.

Eyob Asfaw (eyob.asfaw@aau.edu.et) is a staff member at Addis Ababa University and currently a PhD candidate in Sustainable Development at CSD, AAU. His interests include governance, sustainable development, unemployment, and inclusion.











1 COMMENT

Hussen Ali Seid







July 6, 2025 At 11:27 pm













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