Ethiopia’s $30M Arms Export Claim: A Rising Power or an Overstated Achievement?











Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – Ethiopia has officially joined the ranks of Africa’s top arms exporters, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announcing that the country has already earned at least $30 million from weapons sales. This declaration places Ethiopia behind South Africa ($48 million) and Egypt ($41 million) while surpassing Morocco ($21 million) and Nigeria ($3 million) in reported arms exports.

During a visit to the Homicho Arms Manufacturing Industry near Ambo town in the Oromia region, Abiy emphasized that the country has successfully established its own light to heavy weapons and ammunition production capabilities. “Ethiopia is a big country. It is necessary to ensure that it can protect itself and pass on its wealth to its children,” the Prime Minister stated.

The factory, which started taking shape in 2015 after Ethiopia was forced to buy ammunition in 2014, has now become a cornerstone of the country’s self-reliance strategy. “We had an assessment that if Ethiopia does not build such strategic capabilities, anyone can come and attack it,” Abiy explained.

Ethiopia’s Place in Africa’s Arms Market

If Ethiopia’s figures hold, the country would be ranked third in Africa in terms of arms export revenue:

While South Africa remains the dominant arms exporter on the continent, Ethiopia’s entry into the top three is significant. South Africa has been exporting military hardware for decades, with a well-established arms industry that supplies over 30 African nations. Egypt, similarly, has a state-backed military-industrial complex that has developed small arms, armored vehicles, and munitions for years.

Morocco and Nigeria have been increasing their local production, but their earnings remain much lower. Nigeria’s ProForce, for example, has recently signed its first European arms export deal with Belarus, but the country still primarily imports weapons rather than exporting them.

Questioning Ethiopia’s Claims

Despite the bold announcement, questions remain about Ethiopia’s actual role in the global arms trade.

Where Are the Buyers? – Unlike South Africa and Egypt, which have well-documented export partners, Ethiopia has not disclosed which countries are purchasing its weapons. The absence of transparency raises questions about the scale and legitimacy of the sales.

What Kind of Arms? – Ethiopia’s domestic production capabilities are still relatively young. While the country has successfully developed ammunition and small arms, it is unclear whether it exports advanced weaponry such as drones, armored vehicles, or missile systems—categories that typically drive higher revenue.

Sustainability of Production – Given Ethiopia’s recent civil conflict, has the country truly built an arms industry capable of sustained exports? Some analysts argue that much of its production has been for domestic use rather than export, and it is uncertain whether Ethiopia can maintain or increase its reported earnings.

A Rising Player or a Temporary Claim?

Ethiopia’s announcement signals a new ambition in military-industrial development, but without clear buyers and more transparent reporting, skepticism remains about the $30 million claim.

For now, Ethiopia is positioning itself as a rising force in African arms exports, but it remains to be seen whether the country can sustain its position or if this claim is an overstatement of its growing but still unproven arms industry.