Ethiopia’s Economic Outlook: Prime Minister’s Optimism Contrasts with Fitch Ratings’ Downgrade











Ethiopia’s GDP Growth and Fitch Ratings’ Concerns

While Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (Dr.) projected a rosy picture of the nation’s economic growth in his recent parliamentary address, citing a doubling of the GDP to approximately $164 billion, a contrasting perspective emerges from Fitch Ratings. On November 2, 2023, Fitch Ratings downgraded Ethiopia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (LTFC IDR) to ‘CC’ from ‘CCC-‘, raising concerns about the country’s economic vulnerabilities.

Prime Minister Abiy’s Address: A Vision of Prosperity

During the 4th regular meeting of the 3rd year of the House of Representatives, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed emphasized Ethiopia’s economic achievements. He highlighted the significant rise in GDP and per capita income, positioning Ethiopia as a rapidly growing economy. The Prime Minister stressed the importance of national unity and support for the National Consultative Commission, which he believes is pivotal for the country’s progress.

Fitch Ratings’ Downgrade: A Warning Sign

Contrastingly, Fitch Ratings’ analysis presents a more cautionary tale. The downgrade reflects concerns over Ethiopia’s declining external liquidity and significant financing gaps, increasing the likelihood of a default event. The agency notes that Ethiopia’s already strained external liquidity is expected to worsen, with substantial sovereign external principal and interest payments due in the coming years.

Key Factors Driving the Downgrade

Fitch Ratings points out several key factors behind the downgrade:

Ethiopia’s external imbalances have worsened, with current account deficits running high amid multiple shocks.

Limited progress on the Common Framework for debt relief, with delays partly due to the Tigray conflict.

Rising domestic financing costs, with the government increasingly reliant on domestic financing from the banking sector.

A tight fiscal position, with low revenue collection and high spending on humanitarian and reconstruction efforts.

Economic Challenges Ahead

The downgrade by Fitch Ratings and the Prime Minister’s optimistic economic portrayal paints a complex picture of Ethiopia’s economy. On one hand, there’s an ambitious vision for growth and development, while on the other, there are looming challenges such as debt sustainability, strained liquidity, and inflationary pressures.



Focusing on National Unity and Progressive Reforms

In his address, Prime Minister Abiy called for nationwide support for the National Consultative Commission, emphasizing its crucial role in the country’s continued progress. He highlighted the need for seizing opportunities for change and reform, drawing parallels with missed opportunities in the past, such as in 1953.

Tackling Educational and Health Sector Challenges

Prime Minister Abiy addressed systemic issues in the education sector, stressing the need for comprehensive reforms to improve teacher capacity, education management, and infrastructure. He noted the construction of 18,000 schools in kindergartens with public participation, underlining the importance of education in national development.

In higher education, the government’s approach includes accommodating students based on their 12th-grade exam scores, with provisions for those who pass compensatory exams. This strategy aims to resolve deep-rooted issues in the education system.

In health, the Prime Minister acknowledged ongoing initiatives, including new hospital constructions and existing renovations. He discussed recent health challenges, such as cholera and malaria outbreaks, and the government’s efforts to mitigate these crises.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s comprehensive address covered significant strides in Ethiopia’s economic, educational, and health sectors. His leadership focuses on legal solutions, prioritizing peace, addressing regional conflicts, and implementing educational and health reforms. These efforts collectively showcase Ethiopia’s path toward sustainable development, economic resilience, and national unity under Prime Minister Abiy’s guidance.