In an African context marked by the growing ambition to capture more added value from raw materials, Ethiopia and Guinea represent two converging trajectories. On one hand, Ethiopia is multiplying efforts to control its gold value chain, building or modernizing its gold refineries around Addis Ababa; on the other, the Nimba Gold Refinery aims to establish Conakry as a West African industrial hub. Although their strategies are currently being pursued independently, they could eventually converge into a South–South cooperation focused on gold traceability, certification, and local refining. Both countries illustrate a common dynamic: a strategic shift toward local transformation, transparency, and regional integration. A collaboration between these states would represent a meaningful step toward Africa’s mining sovereignty.

Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, is also undergoing a transformation in its gold sector. For years, the country has struggled with massive leaks of artisanal production into the informal markets of the Horn of Africa. In response, the government has launched a series of reforms to regain control over gold exports and develop refining capacity.

In 2023, Ethiopia’s Ministry of Mines announced the construction of several public and private refineries, accompanied by certification systems and incentive pricing to encourage artisanal producers to enter formal supply chains. The aim is twofold: to increase tax revenues and to secure foreign exchange reserves, in a country heavily dependent on imports.

Partnerships have also been established with Turkish and Emirati companies to transfer technologies and expertise, while maintaining state control over export licenses. Addis Ababa’s ambition is not only to become self-sufficient in refining, but also to serve as a regional hub for gold from East African nations, particularly South Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea.

With a planned capacity of 730 tonnes of gold per year, the Nimba Gold Refinery (NGR) is set to become the largest gold refinery on the continent. Fully financed by entrepreneur Yacoub Sidya, in partnership with the Guinean Ministry of Mines and Emirates Minting, the project marks a clear break from the long-standing model of raw gold exports. Yacoub Sidya is a key figure in the regional mining sector. Founder of MSS Security and Phoenix Precious Metals, he oversees gold logistics and exports in several West African countries, while championing a vision of local transformation focused on traceability, technology, and environmental responsibility. The ultimate goal is to increase value-added creation in Guinea.

The refinery fits within a strengthened regulatory framework. Since 2024, Guinean authorities have required mining companies to prove their capacity for local refining. More than 100 permits have already been revoked due to inactivity or failure to meet contractual obligations. This “clean-up” aims to attract actors committed to on-the-ground industrial development.

Beyond its economic impact—skilled jobs, increased tax revenue, and local infrastructure—the project also seeks to formalize artisanal gold mining through a gold buying center in Kankan, contributing to the integration of the informal sector into a more traceable value chain.

The Ethiopian and Guinean experiences share many structural similarities. In both cases, the state plays a leading role in imposing a new logic of local value addition. The refinery projects involve close cooperation between private investors and public institutions, fostering strong public–private partnerships. Through gold buying centers, incentive-based pricing, and traceability mechanisms, both countries are working to formalize the artisanal gold sector, which remains dominant in certain regions. Each country also aspires to become a regional refining hub, processing gold from neighboring producers. Finally, these strategies reflect a broader push for economic sovereignty, aiming to break dependence on foreign refining centers such as Dubai, Switzerland, or India.

Although Guinea and Ethiopia are not yet formally communicating on their gold policies, their converging trajectories open up concrete opportunities for interstate cooperation. A South–South collaboration around supply chain traceability, shared refining technologies, or common certification standards could reinforce both countries’ sovereignty and give them greater weight in shaping a continental gold market. Pan-African forums or multilateral platforms such as the African Union could facilitate strategic dialogue between these two emerging poles of gold transformation on the continent.

Ethiopia and Guinea represent a rising generation of African countries determined to reclaim control over their mining future. Far from isolated initiatives, the refineries of Addis Ababa and Conakry are paving the way for a more integrated gold diplomacy, where local transformation becomes a lever for sovereignty, tax justice, and regional cooperation. If these projects deliver on their promises, they could not only reshape local economic balances but also rebalance global trade dynamics in the strategic sector of precious metals.

Paul Villerac is an economist specializing in developing economies, with a particular focus on West Africa. He analyzes the underlying trends shaping growth trajectories in the region. A graduate of the Catholic University of Lille, he works closely with both public institutions and private sector stakeholders to support sustainable economic development.

Contributed by Paul Villerac