Political paralysis and strategic miscalculations

As al-Shabaab militants maintain their grip on central Somalia and threaten critical arteries leading to Mogadishu, Somalia’s federal government continues to prioritize political consolidation over national security. The offensive once hailed by President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as a “final push” against terrorism has stalled. A year after its launch, not only has momentum dissipated, but al-Shabaab has reasserted control over key areas — exposing deep cracks in the federal government’s strategy.

Recent developments paint a bleak picture. Al-Shabaab has regained strongholds in Galgaduud, Hiiraan, and Middle Shabelle. Towns such as El Buur, Adan Yabaal, and Yasooman have seen renewed militant activity, despite temporary government offensives backed by clan militias and international partners. Somali National Army (SNA) units, often under-equipped and underpaid, have pulled back in the face of sustained attacks, underscoring the movement’s resilience and the state’s faltering response.

A source close to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) revealed that recent withdrawals by ATMIS troops — part of a planned handover to Somali forces — have inadvertently created power vacuums quickly filled by al-Shabaab. The group is now able to stage attacks and exert influence within 10–15 kilometers of Mogadishu, even striking the capital’s outskirts with increasing frequency.

Yet, in the face of these security threats, the administration in Mogadishu appears fixated on internal political battles. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s campaign to centralize authority has intensified. His government’s strained relationships with federal member states — especially Puntland and Jubaland — have reached a breaking point. Puntland, in particular, has suspended cooperation with the federal government and openly accused Villa Somalia of undermining the federal constitution.

Simultaneously, Mogadishu continues to provoke Somaliland by supporting clan-based agitation in the contested Sool region. This not only contravenes international norms of non-interference but also redirects critical resources and attention away from the fight against terrorism. The government’s approach has alienated key stakeholders, including elders, religious leaders, and regional security actors whose cooperation is vital to defeating al-Shabaab.

Al-Shabaab, ever adept at exploiting divisions, has leveraged clan grievances and power vacuums. Reports from Hiiraan and Galgaduud suggest that some local militias — initially allied with the government — have withdrawn support due to unmet expectations and fears of marginalization by the central government. Intelligence sources indicate the group is adapting its tactics, embedding itself deeper into rural communities while reestablishing shadow administrations that outmatch the state’s governance capacity.

Meanwhile, the government’s failure to roll out a credible reconciliation process or a nationwide stabilization framework has left regions in limbo. The promised reforms on security sector accountability, decentralization, and political dialogue remain unfulfilled. Instead, the narrative from Mogadishu centers on territorial optics rather than institutional resilience or public trust.

The situation is further complicated by regional instability. Renewed tensions in South Sudan, unresolved conflict in Tigray, and deteriorating relations between Somalia and Ethiopia over Somaliland’s port deal are contributing to a volatile security environment. Donors are increasingly cautious, and the risk of Somalia falling off the priority list is real.

The Somali people are paying the price for this strategic disarray. Civilians in liberated areas lack basic services and protection. Displaced communities in Galmudug and Hirshabelle are caught between government neglect and militant coercion. While the federal government speaks of sovereignty and unity, its actions betray a deeper focus on political survival rather than national salvation.

Somalia stands on a precipice. The current trajectory — marked by political centralization, neglect of federalism, and the militarization of inter-clan disputes — is unsustainable. What is needed now is a paradigm shift: a national strategy that combines inclusive governance, localized security solutions, genuine federal cooperation, and development-driven counterterrorism.

Victory against al-Shabaab will not come through rhetoric or power plays in Mogadishu. It will emerge from partnerships built on trust, decentralization, and a government willing to lead with humility and unity.

Adam Daud Ahmed is a Horn of Africa political and security analyst specializing in geopolitics, counterterrorism, and democratization – Hargeisa, Somaliland.

Contributed by Adam Daud Ahmed