Somalia’s precarious geopolitical position in the Horn of Africa necessitates a nuanced diplomatic strategy that constantly adapts to shifting regional power dynamics. In particular, Somalia faces a delicate balancing act between Ethiopia and Egypt, two regional heavyweights with often conflicting interests.

In 2024, Ethiopia signed a deal with Somaliland recognising its claim to independence from Somalia in return for access to the sea. This significantly exacerbated tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia which share a land border. Into this standoff stepped Egypt, embroiled in its own dispute with Ethiopia about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Egypt is actively seeking to replace Ethiopian troops in Somalia with its own as part of the African Union’s peacekeeping force. This opportunistic manoeuvring by Egypt highlights the complex web of relationships shaping Somalia’s foreign policy amid its quest for stability.

Ethiopia-Somalia: A legacy of intervention and mistrust

The relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia is fraught with historical baggage and marked by periods of intervention and mistrust. The 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland deal, which normalised relations between Ethiopia and Somaliland, a self-declared independent state in northern Somalia, further inflamed tensions. This agreement, seen by Somalia’s central government as a violation of its territorial integrity, significantly strained bilateral relations, and led to a protracted diplomatic standoff.

Ethiopia’s support for certain Somali political factions, and its perceived attempts to destabilise Somalia for its own strategic gains have complicated the diplomatic relations of Somalia and Ethiopia. The ongoing instability in Somalia, has provided fertile ground for external actors to interfere, exacerbating existing tensions and complicating the search for lasting peace.

Egypt’s strategic calculus

Egypt’s interest in Somalia is intrinsically linked to its ongoing conflict with Ethiopia over the GERD. The GERD offers significant development opportunities for Ethiopia through the generation of hydroelectric power. But Egypt sees it as a threat to its water security. This tension has led to Egypt to diversify its regional alliances to counter Ethiopian influence. By offering peacekeeping support to Somalia, potentially replacing the current Ethiopian forces, Egypt aims to achieve several objectives: enhance its regional standing, undermine Ethiopia’s influence, and potentially gain leverage in the GERD negotiations.

This move, however, is fraught with potential risks. Egyptian intervention could destabilise the region further, particularly if perceived as an attempt to impose Egyptian hegemony. It could also be sucked into the complexities of Somali politics, including clan rivalries and the presence of armed groups.

Somalia’s internal dynamics: Clan politics and fragile statehood

Somalia’s internal dynamics significantly shape its foreign policy choices. The country’s long history of clan-based politics, coupled with the collapse of central state authority, renders it particularly vulnerable to external influences. The fragmentation of political power makes it difficult for the central government to maintain a unified and coherent foreign policy approach. Different clan factions have different preferences regarding alliances with Ethiopia or Egypt, making consensus-building a significant challenge. The presence of armed groups and the ongoing struggle for control over resources further complicate the situation.

Somalia’s fragile statehood makes it susceptible to manipulation by external actors seeking to advance their own interests. The country’s weak institutional capacity and limited resources hinder its ability to resist external pressures effectively. The absence of strong independent media further complicates matters, limiting the Somali people’s access to objective information about regional power plays.

Geopolitical turbulence in the Horn of Africa

Relations between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Egypt have deteriorated, with Somalia aligning with Egypt and Eritrea against Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s controversial deal with Somaliland sparked a regional backlash.

Ethiopia’s diplomatic isolation is further complicated by its involvement in regional conflicts, including its role in Somalia as part of the African Union mission. The future of these deployments is uncertain due to tensions over the Somaliland deal. The Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, are increasingly involved in the Horn of Africa, seeking to translate economic power into diplomatic and military influence. The UAE has established military and economic footholds across the region, including in Eritrea and Somaliland. The UAE’s strategic acquisitions of port rights highlight its ambition to be a significant maritime power in the region.

International actors and the Somali crisis

The Somalia political quagmire has attracted significant international attention, with various actors playing key roles in shaping the country’s trajectory. The UN, through peacekeeping missions, has played a central role in attempting to stabilise the country and promote peace and security. However, UN peacekeeping operations in Somalia have faced numerous challenges, including the complexities of the conflict, the presence of powerful armed groups, and the limitations of UN mandates.

The involvement of other external powers, including regional actors like Ethiopia and Egypt, adds further complexity to the situation. These actors often pursue their own interests, sometimes at odds with the objectives of the UN and the Somali government. The competition for influence and resources in Somalia has created a volatile environment, making it difficult for the UN and other international actors to achieve their objectives.

Somalia’s diplomatic strategy

Somalia’s diplomatic strategy must navigate a careful path between competing regional powers. Aligning too closely with either Ethiopia or Egypt carries significant risks as partisans and proxies demand support for their own side.

A balanced approach, prioritising Somali national interests, is crucial. This requires strengthening domestic institutions, fostering national unity, and promoting inclusive governance. Somalia needs to actively engage in regional diplomacy and build trust and cooperation with both Ethiopia and Egypt while setting clear boundaries regarding its sovereignty.

Engaging with international actors, particularly the UN, to secure support for state-building efforts and peacekeeping missions is essential. Somalia needs to leverage its strategic location at the entrance to the Red Sea and natural resources to attract foreign investment and development assistance, while carefully managing its relationships with external powers. The pursuit of sustainable peace requires a long-term perspective, focusing on building a strong and resilient state that can withstand external pressures. (This article first appeared on Africa at LSE.)

(Tewodros Woldearegay is a PhD candidate in the Department of Government and International Affairs, Lingnan University, Hong Kong.)

Contributed by Tewodros Woldearegay