The Somali Region, historically plagued by decades of conflict and political marginalization, has undergone a remarkable transformation since the Ethiopian political change of 2018. Once synonymous with instability and violence, the region now stands as a model of peace and progress within the Ethiopian federation. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the region’s historical context, the root causes of its conflicts, and the positive impact of recent political developments—most notably, the peace agreement between the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) and the federal government. It argues for the continued pursuit of peaceful political engagement and warns against regression into armed struggle.

Historical Background and Causes of Conflict

The Somali Region, also known as the Ogaden, has long been a site of conflict rooted in questions of identity, autonomy, and governance. Following the cession of the region to Ethiopia by the British in 1948 and 1954, the Somali people have consistently sought self- determination and a meaningful role in their own governance.

In the 1950s, the Nasrullah Movement emerged in alignment with the broader African independence wave, advocating for political rights and self-governance. This was succeeded by the Geeshka Uprising in the early 1960s, which introduced armed resistance to the growing demand for autonomy. These initial uprisings were curtailed by shifting regional geopolitics.

In 1977, the region became the centre of a major conflict led by the Western Somali Liberation Front (WSLF). The war, fought over the Ogaden, drew in multiple foreign powers. Ethiopia, backed by the Soviet Union, Cuba, South Yemen, and Libya, fought against WSLF and the regular forces from Somalia that joined the war later. The Ogaden war erupted in a time where the Cold War was devastating in many parts of the world.

The early 1990s saw the rise of a new, locally rooted resistance: the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF). Unlike previous movements, the ONLF was devoid of external influence and gained substantial legitimacy among the local population. The ONLF initially sought to achieve the right of self-determination for the Somali people through peaceful political engagement. However, in 1994, it resorted to armed resistance after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF)—the dominant force within the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—undermined the newly established federal system that promised self-rule for Ethiopia’s nations and nationalities, including the Somali State.

Between 1994 and 2018, the conflict between the ONLF and the EPRDF intensified. The federal government, particularly under TPLF leadership, launched harsh and often brutal campaigns against civilians in the Somali Region in an attempt to crush the popular support behind the ONLF. These years were marked by widespread human rights violations, displacement, and suffering, leaving deep scars in the hearts of many across the region.

Governance and Marginalization

For much of its history, the Somali Region was governed through militarization rather than civilian administration. From the time of Emperor Menelik II to the early 1990s, successive Ethiopian governments prioritized military control over public service delivery in the region. The result was a deep-seated perception among local populations that they were subjects of occupation rather than citizens with equal rights.

The establishment of a federal system in the early 1990s brought hope for change. However, despite constitutional provisions for self-rule, real power in the Somali Region remained with federal authorities—particularly Tigrayan officials—who made key decisions on local governance. This contradiction between legal autonomy and political reality led to a renewal of conflict in 1994, reigniting the ONLF-led resistance.

The socio-economic consequences of this prolonged instability were severe. Widespread human rights violations—including extrajudicial killings, torture, imprisonment, rape, and forced displacement—became common. The infamous Jail Ogaden in Jigjiga became a symbol of state repression. Development aid and government investment were minimal, often diverted elsewhere due to the classification of the region as a conflict zone. Basic services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure lagged far behind other Ethiopian regions.

The 2018 Political Transition and Peace Agreement

A significant turning point occurred in 2018 with the rise of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his reformist agenda. One of the most consequential developments was the peace agreement signed between the ONLF and the Ethiopian federal government on October 21, 2018, in Asmara, Eritrea.

The agreement marked the official end of the ONLF’s armed struggle and laid the groundwork for peaceful political engagement. Key provisions included: an immediate cessation of hostilities, recognition of the ONLF’s right to pursue its goals through peaceful means, and a mutual commitment to address the root causes of the conflict.

Following the agreement, the ONLF registered as a legal political party, opened offices across the Somali Region and in the capital Addis Ababa, and began participating in the country’s political process. It also played an active role in peace building, supporting efforts in security reform and socio-economic development.

Impact of the Peace Process

The 2018 agreement yielded substantial positive impacts.  For instance, the Somali Region, previously considered the most volatile area, is now widely acknowledged as the most peaceful and stable region within Ethiopia.



Significant progress has also been made in human rights, with the cessation of systemic abuses prevalent under prior regional administrations, particularly the Abdi Iley regime.  Furthermore, thousands of political prisoners, previously detained due to suspected affiliation with the ONLF or its operatives, have been released.

Political inclusivity is now evident through a functional local government, distinct from its predecessors and dedicated to human rights and development.  Improved federal relations are also noteworthy, although concerns regarding political centralization persist; the region demonstrates more constructive engagement with federal entities.

These gains underscore the importance of maintaining peace and pursuing progress through political means rather than armed conflict.

Challenges and the Path Forward

Despite these achievements, challenges remain. The federal political system is currently dominated by a single party, which can hinder democratic pluralism and limit regional influences. Furthermore, internal political competition and leadership ambitions could threaten to destabilize the fragile peace if not managed through appropriate democratic channels.

The ONLF, having transitioned from armed struggle to peaceful political participation, must now focus on developing a coherent and realistic political agenda; engaging constructively with other political actors; distinguishing personal ambitions from the broader public interest; and avoiding reactionary decisions when faced with political setbacks.

The Somali Region does not need another war. What it needs is committed leadership that prioritizes long-term peace, inclusive governance, and sustainable development.

Recent calls for renewed armed struggle by former ONLF chairman Abdirahman Mahdi are widely seen as misguided and disconnected from the current political and social realities of the Somali Region. Such rhetoric appears to reflect personal agendas rather than a genuine concern for the rights and well-being of the Somali people.

These views were firmly rejected by the Central Committee of the ONLF during its 2nd official session, held in Jigjiga from April 8 to 10, 2025. The committee categorically dismissed Abdirahman Mahdi’s suggestion that the ONLF should consider withdrawing from the 2018 peace agreement, which he claimed had already been abandoned by the Ethiopian government. In contrast, the Central Committee reaffirmed the party’s full commitment to peaceful political engagement and emphasized that the ONLF remains dedicated to non-violent means of pursuing the rights and aspirations of the Somali people.



Conclusion

The transformation of the Somali Region since 2018 is a testament to the power of political will and the potential for peaceful change. The ONLF’s decision to lay down arms and pursue its goals through political engagement has brought tangible benefits to the region’s people and offers a blueprint for resolving conflicts elsewhere.

Preserving and building upon this progress requires vigilance, patience, and a clear-eyed focus on the collective good. The future of the Somali Region lies not in the trenches of war, but in the chambers of dialogue, democratic institutions, and development programs.

Armed struggle is no longer a viable or necessary tool. Instead, unity, accountability, and responsible leadership must guide the region into a new era of peace and prosperity.

Ahmed Yassin Sheikh Ibrahim  is a member of the Central Committee of the ONLF and a former Deputy Chairman of the ONLF. He can be reached at ahmed_abdi220@yahoo.com

Contributed by Ahmed Yassin Sheikh Ibrahim